Upcoming Conferences

Problems involving risk are frequently tackled by the tools of so-called Extreme Value Theory (EVT) – when system failure or catastrophe occurs due to exceedance of a critical level by some stochastic sequence or process.   This will be briefly described first in the talk.     Application of the theory usually seems so natural that it can be surprising if it does not yield useful conclusions, and in such cases more basic (physical or stochastic) modeling can be required.

Two such situations will be described, involving risk of damage to ocean structures and vessels in storms, and the stability of ships in heavy seas.      The failure of obvious EVT methodology will be indicated, and natural stochastic modeling described for construction of useful estimates of the risks involved.   Such results are of interest in Naval Architecture – e.g. with reference to new hull designs.